Toronto Home Prices Down 20% from Peak, But Sales Picking Up: What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

If you’ve been following the Toronto real estate market this autumn, here’s what you need to know: home prices across the region keep trending downward, but sales activity is rising as we move into the busy fall season. In September, the average home price landed around $1.059 million, nearly 5% lower than last year; in fact, that marks the eighth consecutive year-over-year monthly drop (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board [TRREB], The Toronto Star, 3 October 2025).

Despite lower prices, GTA realtors reported 5,592 sales last month—a healthy 8.5% jump over September 2024. What’s driving this uptick? Improved affordability. As Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief information officer, explained: “I think that’s seen some buyers move off the sidelines. But by the same token, we’re not back to where we were.” Since the February 2022 market peak, average prices are now down over 20% (Toronto Star, 2025).

Active listings have also climbed, totalling 29,394—almost 20% higher than last September, and the highest September number since 1996. New listings edged up 4% to 19,260 compared to last year. However, one hint of change: September sales rose from August (seasonally adjusted), while new listings dipped, which “could point to a bit of a reversal in trend,” Mercer noted. “It’s early days, but certainly when you see sales rising in comparison to new listings on a month-over-month basis, it could point to a bit of a reversal in trend.” Still, he cautions, we’ll need October’s numbers to confirm.

Price-wise, the shift wasn’t much from August—just a 0.2% gain. But looking closer by home type, detached home prices in Toronto fell nearly 10% year-over-year in August but only about 0.8% in September. Semi-detached homes saw a 9% annual drop, townhomes about 5%, and condos close to 4%. In the suburbs (“the 905”), detached home prices fell by about 7%, semis by 6%, and both townhomes and condos by around 5%.

A bright spot? Townhomes in Toronto (the 416 area) saw sales jump nearly 40% over last September. As Mercer put it, “change can be magnified” in a smaller segment, but these homes, along with semis, are often entry points for buyers.

That said, affordability remains a challenge for many. But there’s hope as interest rates dip: “I think the Bank of Canada does have room to cut rates further, whether that’s one cut or two over the course of the next few months remains to be seen,” Mercer commented. The Bank of Canada’s recent 25-basis-point drop to 2.5% was its first cut since March (Toronto Star, 2025).

Fall is always a lively season for buyers and sellers in the GTA, right after spring. With this much movement and choice, whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or just stay on top of the market, it’s an exciting time—and I’m here to help you make sense of it all.

Content adapted from May Warren, Housing Reporter, The Toronto Star (3 October 2025). Direct quotes sourced as indicated.

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